OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Current Oil Production Levels Amid Market Uncertainty

Oil traders anticipate OPEC+ will hold production levels steady at this weekend's meeting, despite mixed signals from delegates. The group has already restored 2.2 million barrels daily—a year ahead of schedule—while demand remains stable. Yet, the International Energy Agency warns of a looming surplus by year-end.

Prices have dipped 9% this year as OPEC+'s output surge clashes with weaker Chinese demand and rising supplies from the U.S., Brazil, and Canada. Brent crude hovered NEAR $68 a barrel on Monday, squeezing producers globally. "I expect OPEC+ to hold fire through refinery maintenance season to assess if the anticipated price decline materializes," said Aldo Spanjer of BNP Paribas.

Seventeen of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict no output change in October, with six forecasting a modest hike. The next MOVE could hinge on whether the group prioritizes market share or price stability.